The Dynamics of Passive Smoking in the Presence of Pro and Anti-Smoking Campaigns

Abstract

Globally, the effects of passive smoking are considered to be dangerous to non-smoking as that of actual smoking. This paper formulates and analyzes the effect of smoking in the presence of pro and anti-smoking adverts using a deterministic compartmental math- ematical model. In modelling the dynamics of smoking, the population was divided into five subclasses of potential smokers who respond to pro-smoking advert, potential smokers who respond to anti-smoking adverts, and light smokers, chain smokers and quitters. The model was analysed for the existence of smoke free and endemic equilibrium points and their stability. Numerical simulations were carried out to support the analytical results and to determine the parameters influencing the dynamics of the smoking. It was shown that the smoke free equilibrium point is asymptotically stable when the effective reproduction number is less than unit and unstable when an effective reproduction number is greater than unit. The model analysis shows that pro-smoking and anti-smoking adverts have substantial effect on increment or eradication of smoking habits. It was noted that anti-smoking adverts reduces the smoking habit by eighty percent while the pro-smoking advertisement increases the smoking habits. In order to reduce the spread of smoking habits the efficacy rate of the anti smoking adverts should be sufficiently large while pro-smoking adverts should be minimized.